Estimación del efecto comercial de un TLC entre Colombia e Israel: panorama y análisis de equilibrio parcial, 2004-2014
| Autor | Stella Del Pilar Venegas Calle, Nicolás De la Peña Cárdenas |
| Cargo | Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano, Colombia/Universidad de la Salle, Colombia |
| Páginas | 96-116 |
Artículos
Estimation of the Commercial Effect of a Colombia-Israel FTA: Trade Overview and
Partial Equilibrium Analysis, 2004-2014*
Estimación del efecto comercial de un TLC entre Colombia e Israel: panorama y análisis de equilibrio parcial,
2004-2014
Estimativa do efeito comercial de um TLC entre a Colômbia e Israel: panorama e análise de equilíbrio parcial,
2004-2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cao32-59.etcec
Redalyc: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?
id=cuadernoss20561244001
Date received: 26 February 2018
Date accepted: 14 May 2019
Stella del Pilar Venegas Callea
Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano, Colombia
stellavenegas@gmail.com
ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1662-6273
Nicolás De la Peña Cárdenas
Universidad de la Salle, Colombia
ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7223-9502
Abstract:
e study presents the quantitative effects of a total tariff tax exemption between Colombia and Israel. Tariff reduction simulations
are carried out using a partial equilibrium model based on the SMART methodology. Before the mo del, some indicators are
presented to show an overview of the degree of complementarity, similarity and comparative advantages revealed. e results show
that the commercial effect is very low for both countries and that there are minimum potential risks. However, several opportunities
of new exports for specic sectors are identied.
JEL Codes: F14, F15, F17
Keywords: International Trade Agreements, FTA Colombia-Israel, Trade Indicators, Agreement Assessment.
Resumen:
El estudio presenta los efe ctos cuantitativos de una exención scal arancelaria total entre Colombia e Israel. Las simulaciones de
reducción de tarifas se realizan utilizando un modelo de equilibrio parcial basado en la metodología SMART. Antes del modelo, se
presentan algunos indicadores para mostrar una visión general del grado de complementariedad, similitud y ventajas comparativas
reveladas. Los resultados muestran que el efecto comercial es muy bajo para ambos países y que existen riesgos potenciales mínimos.
Sin embargo, se identican varias oportunidades de nuevas exportaciones para sectores especícos.
Códigos JEL: F14, F15, F17
Palabras clave: acuerdos comerciales internacionales, pronósticos, TLC Colombia-Israel, indicadores comerciales, evaluación
de acuerdos.
Resumo:
Este artigo apresenta os efeitos quantitativos de uma isenção alfandegária total entre a Colômbia e Israel. As simulações de redução
tarifária são feitas usando um modelo de equilíbrio parcial baseado na metodologia SMART. Antes do modelo alguns indicadores
são apresentados para mostrar uma visão geral do grau de complementaridade, semelhança e vantagens comparativas reveladas. Os
resultados mostram que o efeito comercial é muito baixo para ambos países e que existem riscos potenciais mínimos. No entanto,
são identicadas várias oportunidades de novas exportações para setores especícos.
Códigos JEL: F14, F15, F17
Palavras-chave: acordos comerciais internacionais, previsões, TLC Colômbia-Israel, indicadores comerciais, avaliação de
acordos.
Author notes
aCorresponding autor. E-mail: stellavenegas@gmail.com
Cuadernos de Administración, 2019, 32(59), ISSN: 0120-3592 / 1900-7205
Introduction
Colombia and Israel have strengthened their economic ties during the last years. e total value of bilateral
trade has quadrupled during the last de cade (2004-2014), particularly in terms of Colombian exports.
Nevertheless, the commercial volume is still minimum since the participation of the exports to Israel does
not exceed 0.96 per cent in Colombia and the gure for the exports to Colombia is 0.48 per cent of the
Israelite total. e relations between both countries have long had a political component. In recent times,
both countries have turned to internationalization giving rise, in a rapid manner, to a series of commercial
agreements that allow them exploiting their commercial capacities, strengthening the political relation, and
making a contribution to the welfare of the economy.
Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are a sensitive subject in Colombia. e means of communication
repeatedly announce the economic disaster they give rise to, par ticularly in relation to agriculture and the
vulnerable population. Conversely, it is commonly arg ued that they are an extraordinary tool for social
development and economic growth. Nevertheless, evidence se ems to demonstrate that they are neither one
thing nor the other: their effects –both positive and negative– are minimal in terms of trade and the main
benet obtained from them is the dynamic effects of trade.
Israel has shown a growing commercial interest in Latin America and has been expanding commercial
blocks rapidly; among them, the Pacic Alliance aimed at fullling its polic y for expanding their industrial
market (Shamah, 2015). In recent times negotiations have been started Panama (IMFA, March 3, 2015) and
China (IMFA, March 30, 2015), aimed at reaching trade agreements. Colombia, for its part, seeks to open
new markets in Asia and in the Middle East. at is why it has already signed –though not yet in place–
agreements with Israel and South Korea; it is in talks with Japan and Turkey (MinCIT, March 15, 2011; May
20, 2014). Both countries have agreements in common with the European Union, the United States, EFTA,
México, Canada, and Mercosur.
is study intends to approach the ex ante assessment of the effects on international trade that the entering
into force of the Free Trade Agreement –FTA– would have on international trade. e particular case tackled
in this study intends to assess said impacts concerning the Colombia-Israel Agreement, mainly by calculating
indicators and a model to estimate the creation, diversion, and welfare effects of trade, among others.
e document is structured in ve sections. e rst section has a brief literature review around the theories
of economic integration and provides a theoretical framework based on which it is possible to understand
the commercial possibilities and impacts of an agreement between Colombia and Israel. e second one
contains the current economic and commercial outlook of the two economies in question through the use
of descriptive statistics and the estimation of three important trade indicators that serve as a platform for
the analysis of bilateral trade. e third section presents a partial equilibrium model showing the direct
trade effects of a tariff reduction in relation to the creation and diversion of trade, welfare on consumers and
producers, and changes in the government revenue. e fourth one summarizes the conclusions that could
stem from the research, based on the ndings of the work carried out.
Literature Review
In this section, in addition to presenting a review of some of the most recognized studies in the literature on
FTA, 1 it also produces a brief summary about the impacts that tariffs have on the welfare of consumers and
producers from a theoretical point of view. Finally, the section presents a brief review of partial equilibrium
models.
Para continuar leyendo
Solicita tu prueba