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Vincent
AutorEvaristo Diz Cruz
Páginas15-16
15
Prólogo
Foreword
As a Professor of Risk Management and Insurance Studies at New Mexico State
University, I’ve always had an interest in research that seeks to resolve issues
related to areas of social insurance and actuarial science. Fortuitously, about
thirteen years ago I met Evaristo Diz through the American Risk and Insurance
Association. Evaristo was becoming established as a researcher in the areas of
pension reform as well as social programs such as health care. Given the eco-
nomic and demographic challenges facing most countries around the world,
including the United States of America, I jumped at the chance to work together
with him on these important topics. Since that time, we have collaborated on
many research papers together, with publications in numerous academic jour-
nals, as well as a chapter in Latin American Financial Markets: Developments in
Financial Innovations from the International Finance Review book series.
Drawing upon his academic skills and his experience as a consultant to nume-
rous international corporations, Evaristo has written several books discussing
various aspects of Risk Theory. This current publication is his latest eort in mo-
deling risk, both individually and collectively. He begins with a primer on the
various coverages unique to the insurance industry. The book goes through
many scenarios involving a variety of payout situations, and systematically
explains solutions with a high probability of success. Using various tools and
concepts familiar to actuaries and statisticians, such as binomial, Poisson, and
negative binomial distributions, statistical moments, and ruin probability, nite
periods, innite horizons, etc. – Evaristo provides a step-by-step analysis of the
issue at hand and what can be done to eectively address problematic areas.
The problems identied by the author are familiar ones, especially to life/
health/pension actuaries. These include forecasting the basic distributions of
claims frequency, ensuring the feasibility and sustainability of social security
old-age pension funds over time, trend analysis, the relationship between the
risk portfolio and returns on investments, valuation of an annuity using the

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